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Insights

Identifying the Red Flags Along with Practical and Actionable Recommendations

Export controls:
The new era of
"high probability" enforcement and compliance is here.

Compliance programs now face a moment of truth. 

This means export controls driven by a white-collar mindset that turns on the full definition of “knowledge” under the Export Administration Regulations. This is the same definition of “knowledge” that resulted in over $30 billion in penalties and over 700 investigations (LINK) of Foreign Corrupt Practices Enforcement (FCPA). This is why export controls are called the "new FCPA."

 

The full definition of "knowledge" has been in the law (EAR) for decades, but only now being leveraged by the U.S. government. Just as the FCPA was a sleeper law for decades before enforcement ramped up, export controls follow a similar trajectory.

 

As demonstrated in recent regulatory guidance and enforcement actions, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security has rediscovered the full definition of “knowledge” and is applying it as a powerful enforcement tool. 

 

This means that the greatest enforcement and compliance risks come not from technological classifications or thresholds, but from end-use and end-user triggers. 

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​Legacy approaches to export controls get lost in the technical weeds and fail to keep up with the whole new “high probability” ballgame.  

Take action now to protect your company.



Learn more and make informed decisions.

 

Red Flags Rising Solutions LLC can help your company stay ahead in this totally new ballgame. Now is the time to make sure your export controls compliance program has incorporated the full definition of “knowledge” under the EAR through developing, implementing, and testing a “high probability” protocol. 

 

Now is the time to take action before the regulators come and do it for you…with much greater cost and disruption to the business.

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To learn more about the full definition of "knowledge" and the "high probability" standard, check out the following materials with co-author and podcast co-host Michael Huneke of Morgan Lewis & Bockius LLP:

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  • "Red Flags Rising" podcast found on Apple, Spotify, and RSS (and link up top).

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  • "Fresh Looks" series of articles posted on NYU Law School's Program on Corporate Compliance and Enforcement blog which are conveniently gathered on one webpage (see link up top).

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  • Dow Jones' World ECR articles (see courtesy reprints below).

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Looking through a glass onion: Demystifying the definition of ‘knowledge’ under the US EAR

 WorldECR #138, April 2025 

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Anticipating the moment of truth: how to prepare for ‘high probability’ catch-all enforcement

WorldECR #142, July-Aug 2025

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